[ET Net News Agency, 16 July 2026] US June PPI growth slowed to 5.5% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 6.2%; interest rate hike expectations cooled down again. However, Wall Street chip stocks generally softened. This morning, Korean stocks, dominated by semiconductors, plunged 6%, and Japanese stocks also fell by nearly 3% temporarily. Capital chased Hong Kong stocks instead. The HSI gain once expanded to 500 points today, reaching a high of 25,188, not only breaking through the 50-day line (about 24,796) and the 25,000 psychological barrier, but also setting a new high since 5 June. The HSI reported 25,157 at midday, up 476 points or 1.9%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reported 8,369, up 185 points or 2.3%. The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 4,886, up 145 points or 3.1%. The main board turnover was nearly HKD 178.1 billion. After three consecutive days of large net inflows, southbound capital made another net purchase of about HKD 3.7 billion this morning.
"Jaseper Tsang: Three major negative factors hit Hong Kong stocks"
The HSI returned to the 50-day line this morning and once briefly broke through the 25,000-point psychological barrier. Selling pressure appeared slightly at the high level, but it still held 25,000 at midday. Jaseper Tsang, Vice-Chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that the current rebound of the HSI is mainly driven unilaterally by traditional tech stocks, and the market breadth is obviously insufficient. On the technical level, investors cannot rely solely on intraday breakthroughs. The key lies in whether the closing price can steadily stay above 24,500 points, which is near the 50-day line of about 24,800 points, for three to five consecutive trading days. Only then can it be regarded as a stabilization with substantial technical reference value, otherwise the current upward trend can hardly be called a reversal.
Jaseper Tsang pointed out that major global stock markets are still troubled by three major negative factors, limiting the room for Hong Kong stocks to rebound. First, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is endless, and the exchanges of fire between the US and Iran have been repetitive. The market is highly concerned about whether the situation will deteriorate further, or even prompt the Houthi militants to blockade major strait exits such as the Red Sea. This will directly push up energy prices such as Brent and New York crude oil futures, which in turn will trigger market concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and the shadow of balance sheet reduction also make capital hesitate. Since the new Federal Reserve chairman took office, his policy stance has remained unclear, and the market generally worries that the authorities may tend to gradually advance the balance sheet reduction plan. Under the expectation of tightening liquidity, institutional investors currently dare not redeploy heavily into high-risk themes such as AI, but instead tend to lock in profits first at rebound highs, posing heavy resistance to the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.
Finally, Mainland China's economic fundamentals have not seen fundamental improvement, and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is no longer cheap. Although the release of Mainland China's second-quarter GDP and last month's "three horses" economic data triggered market speculation on the Central Government's policy expectations of "stabilising growth", the marginal positive effect of such policy speculation has become increasingly short-lived in recent years. Jaseper Tsang added that when the HSI rebounds to the 25,000-point level, its forward price-to-earnings ratio is close to 11.8 times. Against the background of the market's conservative outlook on the macro economy and companies lowering their earnings forecasts, this valuation level is not enough to attract foreign capital to actively enter the market to chase the rally.
Looking ahead, Jaseper Tsang believes that if the HSI is to truly stabilize, three key prerequisites must be met: including the easing of the US-Iran situation to prompt international oil prices to fall, the Federal Reserve releasing clear policies to eliminate market doubts about the new chairman advancing balance sheet reduction, and Mainland China introducing highly powerful policies to stabilise growth. Before these positive factors appear, it is difficult for the market to have a unilateral breakthrough, and it will maintain a "range-bound" pattern in the short term. Hong Kong stocks face major resistance at the 250-day line, while downside support is mainly at the 10-day line (about 24,200 points). It is expected that the HSI will fluctuate repeatedly within the range of 24,200 to 25,300 points in the short term.
"Apple AI launch helps sales in Mainland China, but Apple concept stocks are not suitable for investment yet"
Apple's AI system "Apple Intelligence" has completed registration in Mainland China, and is expected to support Mainland China users to use AI functions in its future new mobile phone operating systems. Jaseper Tsang believes that the implementation of AI applications in Mainland China is definitely a positive factor for Apple's own mobile phone sales. A crowd of "Apple fans" have been looking forward to AI applications for a long time. Coupled with the market's expectations for future hardware upgrades and the launch of foldable screen mobile phones, it is expected to effectively reverse the boring situation of Apple products lacking surprises and breakthroughs in recent years.
However, when investing in Apple concept stocks, investors need to pay attention to the speculation logic of capital. Jaseper Tsang pointed out that although the improvement in iPhone sales prospects is expected to drive equipment order growth, traditional hardware equipment manufacturers have recently faced cost pressures such as shortages of semiconductor chips and memory chips, and price increases in the upstream supply chain, which may not translate sales growth into substantial gross margin and profit growth. For example, Sunny Optical (02382) does not rely entirely on Apple, but is also affected by the market demand of other smartphone brands; while FIT Hon Teng (06088), which benefits most directly, also bears profit pressure from rising upstream costs.
Therefore, short-term speculative capital is more keen to invest in the field of "AI applications". Among Apple concept stocks, Apple's two major AI partners in Mainland China, Alibaba (09988) and Baidu (09888), are expected to be the first to gain the favour of short-term capital.
Jaseper Tsang analysed that from the perspective of valuation alone, Baidu's current forward price-to-earnings ratio is about 16 times, which is more attractive than Alibaba's 21 to 22 times. However, if looking at mid-to-long-term cash flow, as well as AI revenues with greater certainty from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, Alibaba's foundation is obviously much stronger. In particular, Alibaba's latest earnings guidance shows an improving trend in both sales revenue and profitability of its cloud business, and the market has high expectations for it. Therefore, for mid-to-long-term investors, buying Alibaba will be more robust.
On the technical trend, Alibaba recently just broke through the 50-day line of HKD 116. This breakthrough is very critical because it means that the stock has successfully broken through the long-term downward resistance line extending from the high of HKD 173 on 29 January this year. However, Jaseper Tsang suggests that investors who do not hold the stock do not need to rush to chase the high at this stage. The primary task is to observe whether the share price can stay steadily above the 50-day line for three to five trading days. Once stabilization is confirmed, investors can buy in near the 50-day line, and the mid-to-long-term technical resistance level is projected at the 250-day line (about HKD 137) level.
"Jaseper Tsang: Three major negative factors hit Hong Kong stocks"
The HSI returned to the 50-day line this morning and once briefly broke through the 25,000-point psychological barrier. Selling pressure appeared slightly at the high level, but it still held 25,000 at midday. Jaseper Tsang, Vice-Chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News Agency that the current rebound of the HSI is mainly driven unilaterally by traditional tech stocks, and the market breadth is obviously insufficient. On the technical level, investors cannot rely solely on intraday breakthroughs. The key lies in whether the closing price can steadily stay above 24,500 points, which is near the 50-day line of about 24,800 points, for three to five consecutive trading days. Only then can it be regarded as a stabilization with substantial technical reference value, otherwise the current upward trend can hardly be called a reversal.
Jaseper Tsang pointed out that major global stock markets are still troubled by three major negative factors, limiting the room for Hong Kong stocks to rebound. First, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is endless, and the exchanges of fire between the US and Iran have been repetitive. The market is highly concerned about whether the situation will deteriorate further, or even prompt the Houthi militants to blockade major strait exits such as the Red Sea. This will directly push up energy prices such as Brent and New York crude oil futures, which in turn will trigger market concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and the shadow of balance sheet reduction also make capital hesitate. Since the new Federal Reserve chairman took office, his policy stance has remained unclear, and the market generally worries that the authorities may tend to gradually advance the balance sheet reduction plan. Under the expectation of tightening liquidity, institutional investors currently dare not redeploy heavily into high-risk themes such as AI, but instead tend to lock in profits first at rebound highs, posing heavy resistance to the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.
Finally, Mainland China's economic fundamentals have not seen fundamental improvement, and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is no longer cheap. Although the release of Mainland China's second-quarter GDP and last month's "three horses" economic data triggered market speculation on the Central Government's policy expectations of "stabilising growth", the marginal positive effect of such policy speculation has become increasingly short-lived in recent years. Jaseper Tsang added that when the HSI rebounds to the 25,000-point level, its forward price-to-earnings ratio is close to 11.8 times. Against the background of the market's conservative outlook on the macro economy and companies lowering their earnings forecasts, this valuation level is not enough to attract foreign capital to actively enter the market to chase the rally.
Looking ahead, Jaseper Tsang believes that if the HSI is to truly stabilize, three key prerequisites must be met: including the easing of the US-Iran situation to prompt international oil prices to fall, the Federal Reserve releasing clear policies to eliminate market doubts about the new chairman advancing balance sheet reduction, and Mainland China introducing highly powerful policies to stabilise growth. Before these positive factors appear, it is difficult for the market to have a unilateral breakthrough, and it will maintain a "range-bound" pattern in the short term. Hong Kong stocks face major resistance at the 250-day line, while downside support is mainly at the 10-day line (about 24,200 points). It is expected that the HSI will fluctuate repeatedly within the range of 24,200 to 25,300 points in the short term.
"Apple AI launch helps sales in Mainland China, but Apple concept stocks are not suitable for investment yet"
Apple's AI system "Apple Intelligence" has completed registration in Mainland China, and is expected to support Mainland China users to use AI functions in its future new mobile phone operating systems. Jaseper Tsang believes that the implementation of AI applications in Mainland China is definitely a positive factor for Apple's own mobile phone sales. A crowd of "Apple fans" have been looking forward to AI applications for a long time. Coupled with the market's expectations for future hardware upgrades and the launch of foldable screen mobile phones, it is expected to effectively reverse the boring situation of Apple products lacking surprises and breakthroughs in recent years.
However, when investing in Apple concept stocks, investors need to pay attention to the speculation logic of capital. Jaseper Tsang pointed out that although the improvement in iPhone sales prospects is expected to drive equipment order growth, traditional hardware equipment manufacturers have recently faced cost pressures such as shortages of semiconductor chips and memory chips, and price increases in the upstream supply chain, which may not translate sales growth into substantial gross margin and profit growth. For example, Sunny Optical (02382) does not rely entirely on Apple, but is also affected by the market demand of other smartphone brands; while FIT Hon Teng (06088), which benefits most directly, also bears profit pressure from rising upstream costs.
Therefore, short-term speculative capital is more keen to invest in the field of "AI applications". Among Apple concept stocks, Apple's two major AI partners in Mainland China, Alibaba (09988) and Baidu (09888), are expected to be the first to gain the favour of short-term capital.
Jaseper Tsang analysed that from the perspective of valuation alone, Baidu's current forward price-to-earnings ratio is about 16 times, which is more attractive than Alibaba's 21 to 22 times. However, if looking at mid-to-long-term cash flow, as well as AI revenues with greater certainty from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, Alibaba's foundation is obviously much stronger. In particular, Alibaba's latest earnings guidance shows an improving trend in both sales revenue and profitability of its cloud business, and the market has high expectations for it. Therefore, for mid-to-long-term investors, buying Alibaba will be more robust.
On the technical trend, Alibaba recently just broke through the 50-day line of HKD 116. This breakthrough is very critical because it means that the stock has successfully broken through the long-term downward resistance line extending from the high of HKD 173 on 29 January this year. However, Jaseper Tsang suggests that investors who do not hold the stock do not need to rush to chase the high at this stage. The primary task is to observe whether the share price can stay steadily above the 50-day line for three to five trading days. Once stabilization is confirmed, investors can buy in near the 50-day line, and the mid-to-long-term technical resistance level is projected at the 250-day line (about HKD 137) level.
